Showing posts with label Economics. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Economics. Show all posts

Thursday, October 3, 2013

One Banker Whom I Respect

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The Texas Monthly runs a profile of Dick Fisher, the CEO of the Dallas Federal Reserve bank. Known for his hawkishness on interest rates, he may be taken for a dyed-in-the-wool Republican, but in 1994 he ran as the Democratic candidate for the U.S. Senate against Kay Bailey Hutchinson.
By all accounts, including his own, Fisher didn’t make much of an impression on the people of Texas. Hutchison was reelected in a twenty-point landslide
Dick Fisher has surprises sprinkled throughout his resume. His father struggled to make ends meet, moving the family to China, California, Mexico and Florida during Richard's childhood. As a child, Richard spoke Spanish better than he did English. He worked summers at a greasy spoon, got a scholarship to prep school, and ended up in the Ivy League.

By the time I met him in the 1970's--we were in the same study group--the transformation was complete. Always preppily dressed, he didn't have to tell anyone that he went to Harvard, he looked it. He was more "Ivy" than the other Ivy graduates in our class and was a straight arrow in appearance, attitude, and behavior when, frankly, most of us weren't.

His classmates are honing their golf swings, but Richard appears to be working harder than ever.

Tuesday, July 2, 2013

Too Much Power

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San Bruno station is shuttered during the strike
Diversification isn't just a desirable attribute of investment portfolios, it's a fundament of capitalism. If purchasers of goods or services are too reliant on one supplier, purchasers are vulnerable to supply disruptions, price hikes, unfavorable contract renegotiations, and other characteristics of monopolies.

"Natural" monopolies, such as public utilities that have no competition because of their economies of scale, are regulated by the government. When the government operates the monopoly, consumers are for the most part helpless.

For thousands of commuters Bay Area Rapid Transportation (BART) trains are the only transit method. Alternative transportation--including driving--from the East Bay to San Francisco is costly and can be much slower. That is why the BART strike, which began Monday, is so devastating. It's also dysfunctional (bold added):
BART's labor stoppage is polluting the air, wasting commuters' time and, at least by one estimate, costing the overall Bay Area economy $73 million per day.

The most public sticking points that led to the strike have been raises and pension contributions, a dispute that is separated by $17.53 million a year.
When the monopolist sneezes, everyone catches cold---a cautionary tale about granting any entity, public or private, too much power over everyone's lives.
© 2013 Stephen Yuen
[Update - 7/5/13: trains will resume service for 30 days as management and unions attempt to reach a deal.]

Tuesday, June 4, 2013

Keeping The Feelings Going

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Every week we sort garbage into three carts.
Duke professor Michael Munger examines the economics and logic of recycling. He concludes that mandatory recycling, which has spread to more and more communities including ours, is not economically justified even if we make allowances for a) the higher "true" cost of landfill sans recycling and b) the under-recognized value of some recyclables (e.g. aluminum cans).

For many people recycling has become a moral, even religious, imperative immune to analysis. And so it is that we have "a long line of cars, engines idling, waited to pull up to the recycling facility" and some communities encouraging the use of the dishwasher to clean plastics and cans before they are dumped in the blue containers.

Much of our motivation to recycle stems from a desire to feel good about ourselves, and now it appears that we are willing to pay an ever higher price to keep those feelings going. © 2013 Stephen Yuen

Sunday, June 2, 2013

Another Commencement Address

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A good commencement address by Harvard economist Greg Mankiw, filled with wisdom (no, really!). A sampling:
It is true that as an economist, I know precisely what the future holds. But union rules prevent me from sharing that knowledge with the general public.

Communities matter. Communities influence your behavior and shape who you will become. So choose your communities wisely. What is the right community for one person is not necessarily the right community for another. Find a place that will support you and push you to be a better person, as this school has. So far in life, your parents have often chosen the communities for you. But going forward, this is going to be more of your responsibility.

Your niche in life—your comparative advantage [blogger's note: he's an economics professor and can't help himself]—is out there waiting for you. You may not find it immediately. It may present itself to you at an unexpected time and an unexpected place. Be sure to be ready with an open mind.

Monday, May 13, 2013

Another Favorite Leaves the Scene

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One of the chief reasons I subscribed (note the past tense) to Barron's was to read Alan Abelson. Apparently, I wasn't the only one who missed his penetrating observations:
Alan Abelson passed away last week at the age of 87, and his absence from this column over the past few months has been noticed by its legions of loyal readers. We fielded scores of inquiries from folks whose weekends invariably started by turning to Alan's column. They clearly missed the enlightenment and sheer enjoyment he provided.
Over the 46 years that he had been writing for Barron's he had accumulated a vast array of sources that furnished insights on finance, the economy, and markets that were not available elsewhere. But what made his column a must-read was its dry humor. Here is Alan Abelson on the fiscal cliff negotiations:
While the world waited with bated breath for resolution of the bitter battle of the fiscal cliff, the telling moment of that monumental clash between the warring parties was an exchange a few steps removed from the Oval Office between the speaker of the House, John Boehner, and his counterpart in the Senate, Harry Reid. It was a chance encounter. Reid, a few hours earlier, had delivered a speech on the Senate floor excoriating Boehner for refusing to bring measures for a vote in the chamber he has putative control over, measures that would have averted a potentially disastrous plunge by the economy into the abyss. Still boiling with indignation, Boehner jabbed a finger at Reid and snarled "Go f--- yourself." (We can't repeat verbatim what he suggested Reid do; we are, after all, a family magazine. Suffice it to say it's an act that requires a degree of athleticism beyond that possessed by most mortals.)
We can't imagine another business publication daring to present the same content so amusingly without, er, going over the cliff. Another unique voice has left the scene. R.I.P. © 2013 Stephen Yuen

Friday, April 26, 2013

Perspectives on Unemployment

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The Wall Street Journal:
Just 88,000 jobs were created last month, far below February's 268,000 gain. The unemployment rate, derived from a separate survey, dropped to a four-year low of 7.6%. But the decline was prompted by nearly a half-million workers leaving the job market, not job growth.
The Economist:

UNEMPLOYMENT in the euro area reached a record high in early 2013. According to Eurostat, the European Commission's statistical service, unemployment in the 17 member states stood at 12% in February (and in January after a revision), the highest in the euro area's history.
David Letterman:
Yesterday [was] take-your-son-or-daughter-to-work day. You know, that's how we got Kim Jong-Un!

You know, for a lot of people it's take-your-son-or-daughter-where-you-used-to work.

And in China, kids take their parents to work!
The business pubs make you think, but David Letterman makes me laugh. Right now I'd rather laugh.

Wednesday, March 27, 2013

Visit to Drakes Bay

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It was time to pay a visit to the oyster farm.

In December Secretary of the Interior Ken Salazar decided not to renew the lease of the Drakes Bay Oyster Company at Point Reyes National Park. Shutting down the century-old operation in March would have cost 30 jobs and reduced California's annual oyster production by about a third. The decision sparked protest even in the environment-friendly Bay Area.

A federal judge granted a reprieve until May 15th for Drakes Bay to make its case. Whether the company will be successful is highly problematic because of its limited ability to wage a protracted legal fight with the Federal Government.

When we arrived in mid-afternoon, the workers were still harvesting oysters and sorting them by hand. We watched the activity, then adjourned to the sales counter where manager and owner Ginny Lunny-Cummings apprised us of the court battle. Legal help is expensive, even with much of the work being done pro bono.

We made a small donation to the cause, then bought a quart of freshly shucked oysters. We slurped the cold, sweet morsels at the picnic tables and brought some home, packed with ice in the cooler. They won't taste as good tomorrow, but we'll still be grateful for them. Soon, if the Administration has its way, there won't be any to taste at all. © 2013 Stephen Yuen

Monday, March 18, 2013

My World in a Car

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Longtime readers of this journal know that your humble observer finds it difficult to part with his old cars. Apparently, there are enough of us "jalopy drivers" around to merit a study:
Clinging to a car isn't just about money. Here's what one automotive research firm discovered when it surveyed consumers who held on to their cars for 10-plus years:
  • They like to travel overseas
  • They look for security in their relationships
  • They have a college degree
  • They tend toward libertarian political views
  • They like to garden and do their own home repairs

    Source: Strategic Vision, Inc.
  • The study appears to be about people who can afford a new car ("like to travel overseas" infers that "like" means "being able to") but choose not to buy one. Those who drive beaters because of economic limitations may well have a different profile.

    In my case the Strategic Vision description is about 80% accurate. The overarching characteristic of us jalopy-by-choicers appears to be that we subscribe, consciously or not, to the 1970's small-is-beautiful ethos. We don't throw away stuff if it's working, we ignore markers of social status, we value our independence, and we buy what we need, not what we want. These are all principles that we break from time to time because of ego, social pressure, and convenience, but our lives are better off for having followed them.

    On the other hand, sometimes an old car is just a clunker. © 2013 Stephen Yuen

    Our van qualified for the 2009 cash-for-clunkers program. We're still driving it.

    Friday, March 8, 2013

    McArdle on Drug Addiction, Sequestration, and Unemployment

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    A few of the postings by Megan McArdle this week. She always has interesting things to say.

    There's a Reason That Addicts Say Yes to Drugs
    But from talking to friends who developed more-than-recreational habits, and observing the behavior of addicts worldwide, it seems obvious that they do find the drugs even better than jobs, wives, friends, and health. It isn't that they don't want those other things, too, but at the moment of choice, they prefer the drugs. [snip]

    From the point of view of the addict, drugs are great. He doesn't have a drug problem: he has a reality problem.
    Comment: Drug addiction, although much worse, has this in common with over-eating--short-term pleasure too often overwhelms the long-term gain of abstinence.

    The Administration's Thin Complaints About the Sequester
    [re proven-to-be-false claims about teacher layoffs and janitor pay cuts]: these aren't matters of opinion where the administration can simply argue assumptions; these are easily checkable statements with hard numbers attached. From this I infer that the administration is having a hard time finding concrete examples of bad things that the sequester is going to do. Nor is that a huge surprise. Whether you're for or against the sequester, we are talking about relatively small sums, in the scope of the federal deficit. They're simply not going to show up in much measurable way as devastating hardship.
    Comment: we've said as much, along with thousands of commentators and politicians from both sides of the aisle. Why does an Administration with smart people (whether you agree with them or not) make such dumb claims that can quickly be disproved? They're dissipating their capital needlessly.

    The Federal Government Should Hire the Long-Term Unemployed [bold added]
    No, I'm not talking about WPA jobs (though I also think that those sorts of jobs would make a fine alternative to unemployment insurance). [snip]

    But even now, with governments cutting back, there are government vacancies being filled. Why not institute a special preference for people who experienced long-term unemployment between 2009 and 2013? We already have preferences for veterans and the disabled. It would be easy enough to make long-term unemployment a similar "plus factor". Unless you believe that the employer bias against the long-term unemployed is entirely rational--and I am pretty skeptical about this--then this sort of preference should be an all-around win. It wouldn't, by itself, be enough to solve the problem. But even a small start is worthwhile.
    Comment: one may think that there's too much public-sector spending and employment. However, as long as there are government vacancies, why not give a preference to the long-term unemployed? Of course, they still must be qualified to do the job.

    Saturday, December 29, 2012

    The Fiscal Cliff is Not the Real Problem

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    The Government balance sheet
    As Washington works through the weekend to avoid the fiscal cliff, U.S. News editor-in-chief Mort Zuckerman says that the current budgetary woes (the U.S. budget deficit for fiscal 2012 was $1.1 trillion) are dwarfed by the liabilities that the U.S. government is adding each year [bold added]:
    Today the estimated unfunded total is more than $87 trillion, or 550 percent of our GDP. And the debt per household is more than 10 times the median family income.

    .... the real annual accrued expense of Medicare and Social Security alone is $7 trillion. The government's balance sheet does not include any of these unfunded obligations but focuses on the current year deficits and the accumulated national debt.
    The government balance sheet is not only less transparent, but misleading for not including material obligations (below information obtained from 2011 GAO report) that any private-sector entity would be prosecuted for omitting.


    If there's one New Year's hope that your humble observer has for public governance, it's that legislators and the public have better information to gauge the consequences of their decisions. One place to start would be in government reports that are held to the same requirements that are demanded for the rest of us. © 2012 Stephen Yuen

    Friday, November 16, 2012

    Almost the Apocalypse

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    It will be the end of the world when someone actually meets the starting bid (or more!).

    Of course, if Twinkies are selling for anything close to this price, then Hostess wouldn't be going out of business:
    Hostess Brands Inc., the 85-year-old maker of iconic treats such as Twinkies, Ding Dongs and pantry staples like Wonder Bread, on Friday said it would go out of business after failing to reach agreement on wage and pension cuts with its bakers' union.
    Like works of art whose value appreciates when the artist dies, Twinkies prices might well follow a similar path (although $8,000 is a mite ambitious). At least with all the preservatives used in their manufacture, an investor will have years to make his speculation pay off. © 2012 Stephen Yuen

    Saturday, November 10, 2012

    Still Going Strong

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    Eugene Fama on too-big-to-fail (H/T Tyler Cowen) [bold added]:
    Basically, the institutions that are considered to be too big to fail have their debt priced as if it’s riskless, which gives them a low cost of capital and makes it very easy for them to expand and become an even bigger problem. Plus, everybody now accepts the assertion that they are too big to fail, which creates a terrible moral hazard for the management of these financial institutions. Business leaders won’t consciously tank their companies, but too big to fail will push them toward taking more risk, whether they realize it or not.

    I don’t think Dodd–Frank (the Dodd–Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act) cures that moral hazard problem. Even if lawmakers could devise the perfect regulation for such a cure, the chance that it will be implemented by the regulators in the way designed is pretty close to zero.

    The simplest solution would be to raise the capital requirements of banks. A nice place to start would be a 25% equity capital ratio, and if that doesn’t work, raise it more. The equity capital ratio needs to be high enough that a too-big-to-fail financial institution’s debt is riskless, not because of what is essentially a government guarantee but because the equity ratio is very high.
    In 1969 Fama, Fisher, Jensen and Roll wrote the seminal article on the efficient-market hypothesis. Lesser lights have won the prize; as Tyler Cowen says, give the man his Nobel.

    Friday, November 9, 2012

    Now That the Election's Over

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    Now that the election's over we are likely, finally, to learn the truth about:

  • Benghazi
  • Obamacare's costs
  • End-of-year defense layoffs
  • FEMA's before-and-after performance on Hurricane Sandy
  • Unemployment statistics
  • Whether General Motors is really healthy
  • What the President meant when he said he would be "flexible" on missile defense

    Your humble observer believes that the President will wind up unscathed on at least some of these issues, so this post is not a criticism of him.

    The mainstream media turned a blind eye to these questions in the run-up to the election. Their neglect was a gross dereliction of its duty to help the electorate make informed choices.

    Reporters sometimes have to choose between their professed responsibility to discover and disclose the truth (please, no sophistry about the subjectivity of knowledge) and their personal politics. CPAs tabulate inventory counts that could unexpectedly lower their clients' earnings. Scientists report the harmful side effects of experimental drugs and possibly negate millions of dollars and years of research. Even lawyers, who have a primary responsibility to their clients, have a duty to disclose material facts that could help the other side.

    If the press had pursued these 2012 stories with even a fraction of the enthusiasm with which it pilloried the Bush Administration over Hurricane Katrina, Abu Ghraib, Guantanamo, and the 5.5% unemployment rate in 2004, then it would be deserving of the esteem with which we regard most of our venerable professions. After its performance in 2012, it's doubtful whether the press will ever recover, and we all will be the poorer. © 2012 Stephen Yuen
  • Sunday, October 7, 2012

    The Roots of Quantitative Easing

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    Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke says that government leaders can learn a lot from how Davey Johnson manages the Washington Nationals baseball team [bold added]:
    Davey fully appreciates the importance of making decisions based on factual evidence and rigorous analysis. He strikes the right balance between relying on the tangible (data) and the intangible (confidence and motivation) and shows the rare ability of being able to make the right trade-off between winning the day's game and motivating a player who will help the team win in the long run.
    Davey Johnson is a lot like Ben Bernanke, n'est-ce-pas?



    Dr. Bernanke's fascination with baseball goes back to his childhood. Blogger Dan Mitchell has unearthed a rare video that shows Baby Ben working on his throwing motion.


    Your Pulitzer is waiting, Dan.

    Tuesday, September 18, 2012

    What Does It Mean to be Poor?

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    Business writer Megan McArdle reflects on the question by examining whether poverty is measured by consumption or by income [bold added].
    When you look at what people are consuming, you don't see the gross material deprivation that really used to characterize being poor, like lack of hot water, regularly having no food in the house, shivering yourself to sleep in the cold, or wearing patched (or worse, unpatched) clothes. Younger poor people quite frequently have things that older non-poor people consider nonessential luxuries, like cable or satellite television, expensive sneakers, and high-end cellular phones.
    Every middle-class person knows someone who is technically "poor" as measured by income, but who drives a better car, wears nicer clothes, or has a more exciting night life than one's own. It's tempting to subscribe to the viewpoint that success or failure in life is their own fault:
    ...poor people are not so much lacking in money, as lacking in the self-discipline to spend their money wisely. This view is reinforced by the fact that a lot of immigrants do arrive here with even less than the native poor, often don't qualify for supplemental benefits that cushion the deprivation of the native poor, and nonetheless after a generation or two end up quite prosperous.
    And yet we also know hard-working individuals of character who have fallen on hard times through no "fault" of their own. The catalyst that began the descent could be a divorce, the loss of a job, caring for a sick parent, the death of a breadwinner, or poor health. It seems impossible to craft a wise poverty program that will address each of the "eight million stories in the naked city".

    Megan McArdle thinks that people often remain poor because they are trapped in bad neighborhoods:
    People with impulse control problems, mental illness, drug and alcohol addictions, are very, very disproportionately likely to end up poor.....So even though these people remain a minority in poor neighborhoods, poor neighborhoods nonetheless have a lot more of them than more affluent communities...

    More importantly, poor people have to put up with it, because they have a limited number of other neighborhoods to choose from, most of which have the same constellation of problems. If a gang moves into a middle class neighborhood and starts terrorizing the residents, either the cops take care of it, or the middle class people move. If it happens in a poor neighborhood, well, where are you going to go?
    It's hard to see how we will ever have enough resources to make most bad neighborhoods safe, especially given local government budget constraints.

    One more thought: poverty is more about the future than the present. When I was going to graduate school, debts exceeded my assets, and I had no income. Yet no one then would have thought to call me poor. Roll that same financial profile forward 40 years however, when productive years are largely in the past, and that would be a snapshot of an impoverished person by anyone's definition.

    So here's what we're left with. Poverty is more about personal behavior, secure neighborhoods, values, and probable futures. If those all are aligned, money will take care of itself. © 2012 Stephen Yuen

    Monday, September 3, 2012

    Labor Day, 2012

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    Millions of jobs have been lost to overseas manufacturers, but there are signs that the process is reversing. According to the WSJ
    About 14% of U.S. companies surveyed by a Massachusetts Institute of Technology professor definitely plan to move some of their manufacturing back home—the latest sign of growing interest among executives in a strategy known as "reshoring." [snip]

    Among the main reasons cited for reshoring: a desire to get products to market faster and respond rapidly to customer orders; savings from reduced transportation and warehousing; improved quality and protection of intellectual property.
    Manufacturing's rebirth could come from another direction, however. Just as the computer industry was eventually revolutionized by hobbyists tinkering in their garages, the grassroots "maker" movement is adding more enthusiasts every day. Do-it-yourself craftsmen and inventors are flocking to Maker Faires and subscribing to Make Magazine. The movement has begun to attract venture capital for companies that exploit the fruits of makers' ideas, as well as supply products to this burgeoning industry.

    If a would-be Edison lacks modern manufacturing equipment and the skill to use it, he can acquire both for about the same price as a gym membership. TechShop
    provides access to a wide variety of machinery and tools including milling machines and lathes, welding stations and a CNC plasma cutter, sheet metal working equipment, drill presses and band saws, industrial sewing machines, hand tools, plastic and wood working equipment including a 4' x 8' ShopBot CNC router, electronics design and fabrication facilities, Epilog laser cutters, tubing and metal bending machines, a Dimension SST 3-D printer, electrical supplies and tools, and pretty much everything you'd ever need to make just about anything.
    TechShop has locations in California, Michigan, and North Carolina and will soon expand to Texas and New York. It offers safety and proficiency instruction to all its members.

    From a short-run perspective the job picture is dismal. In the longer run it's rarely been more hopeful. © 2012 Stephen Yuen